2026. 1. 20. 05:13ㆍ투자(Investment)
As I contemplate the financial freedom necessary to sustain my travels, I naturally find myself focusing on the essence of assets. Recently, "Silver" has entered my radar, heating up even more intensely than gold. Its surge is too extraordinary to be dismissed as a mere rebound in precious metal prices. Having skyrocketed approximately 318% since January 2024, easily outperforming Nvidia and the Nasdaq, I decided to look into the truth behind this phenomenon.
1. Why Silver, Why Now?
There are clear physical and economic reasons why silver prices are soaring so aggressively.
- Evolution into an Energy Currency: Elon Musk argues that energy is the true currency. Silver possesses the highest electrical conductivity of any metal on Earth. It is destined to be a core material for batteries (the "containers" of energy), AI data centers (the "highways"), and solar panels.
- Scarcity Proven by Physics: Silver is the only metal that remains conductive even when oxidized. In high-tech sectors where failure is not an option, such as the space industry or high-performance GPUs, silver possesses an irreplaceable "magic."
- Chronic Supply Deficit: For five consecutive years, silver supply has failed to meet demand. Inventories in London and New York are already hitting rock bottom. This is a sign that the futures market system—which has suppressed prices through paper documents—is collapsing under the pressure of Big Tech and China demanding physical delivery.
2. 'Second-Level Thinking' for Investors
I analyze the current silver market from the perspective of "Second-Level Thinking," as emphasized by Howard Marks. One must move beyond the primary thought that "prices will rise because of a shortage" and read the structure beyond it.
- Promotion to a 'Strategic Energy Asset': Silver used to be the "poor man's gold," but it now takes on the character of a "strategic industrial material" like rare earths or oil. Amid U.S.-China tensions, it is noteworthy that silver has become a "security asset" that dictates national competitiveness.
- The Elon Musk Dilemma: Musk calls the silver price explosion a "disaster" and advocates for control. Paradoxically, this signifies a powerful "support floor for demand." The more he "hates" the price rise—and the more his businesses succeed—the more absolute the demand for silver remains, regardless of cost.
- Decoupling of Physical and Paper Markets: Short-selling by large banks is no longer able to suppress physical prices. As Big Tech companies begin to pull "real silver" directly from vaults, there is a strong possibility of a sharp "short-squeeze" based on market principles.
- The Paradox of ETF-Bound Inventory: 70% of London's inventory is tied up in silver ETFs (such as SLV) and cannot be used for industrial purposes. A cyclical structure has formed where increased investment further squeezes the supply available for industrial sites.
3. Conclusion: Preoccupying the Container of Energy
The silver market is a volatile one, fluctuating by 10% in a single day. However, rather than being swayed by short-term gains, I intend to approach it from the perspective of preoccupying the "core infrastructure of the energy paradigm shift." The warning that "silver vaults are empty" may be the starting pistol for an era where the value of physical assets overwhelms that of fiat currency.